Are AI Stocks Really Overpriced? You Might Be Using the Wrong Math (or None at All)
AI and semiconductor stocks have been on a run. Two kinds of critics show up when that happens. The first group reaches for the P/E ratio. They compare it to the S&P 500’s long-run historical average of around 16, a number derived from data going back to the early 1900s and blended across two world wars, the Great Depression, and the postwar boom. “We’re being disciplined,” they explain. What they skip is that the S&P 500 hasn’t actually traded near 16 in any sustained way for decades. Over the last 25 years it has averaged closer to 22 to 25 in normal years and currently sits around 32. The 16 baseline isn’t modern market context. It’s a century-long average that makes today’s multiples look more extreme than they are. ...